Michigan Political Week in Review

Fifty days until the election. As we near the seven-week threshold, the campaign ads are being launched, the debates are being debated, and the races across the state are kicking it into in a higher gear.

While the nation paused to recall 9/11, the more extreme elements of American society were busy with stunts reminiscent of the darkest parts of our history. On days like Saturday, it is important to recall the larger picture we are a part of and the future we wish to preserve and pass along. Where we get our energy and oil, unfortunately, keeps us tethered to an unstable geopolitical reality. The change to remake that reality begins right here at home, and the opportunity will never be better than 50 days from now. Here, then, is your Political Week in Review:

Governor’s Race:

A recent poll from the Detroit News and WDIV-TV put Snyder ahead of Bernero by 20.3%. As that enormous margin is not necessarily new, perhaps the most important statistic is that undecided voters have dropped from 17.8% in August to 7.5% in the latest poll. This is very difficult news for Bernero as it essentially means that even if he picks up every undecided voter, he will still be shy of a victory by double-digits. The only way forward, then, is an aggressive campaign against Snyder to peel away his voters. Voters, brace yourself for some negative ads.

In a very disappointing turn of events, Michigan voters learned that Snyder and Bernero were unable to come to an agreement on holding head-to-head debates before the election. Each side insists they bent over backwards to make it happen but the other side was just too obstinate in their demands. This stalemate is most likely to benefit the Snyder campaign. He is already up by 20 points in most polls and appearing on stage with an opponent who is challenging his positions would be unlikely to give his already-large lead any bump. Bernero, on the other hand, would have everything to gain with a debate as, very frankly, his numbers really have nowhere to go but up. Given that situation, the Snyder campaign will likely take a short-term hit on appearing aloof, but will avoid the long-term hit of a potentially harmful debate appearance.

Strategy aside, though, Michigan voters deserve better than political calculations on this issue. Both candidates should return to the negotiating table and give citizens a chance to truly compare their choices. Anything less is a disservice to the Michiganders they hope to serve.

Our sister organization --- the Michigan League of Conservation Voters Education Fund ---  hosted an exciting forum in the primary election which featured Snyder and Bernero debating conservation issues and the clean energy economy. Check out the full video, as it may be the only chance to see them share a stage in this election.

State Legislature:

Many Michiganders may have been asked to respond to polls that are flying around the state right now attempting to get a sense of winnable races for either party. The State House is the big prize for this election as the Democrats seek to hold on to it to keep a voice in what is looking to be a Republican-led Governorship and State Senate.

Even so, the State Senate should not be written off yet, especially with voters tired of the kind of leadership that led to ignoring the constitutional ban on oil drilling. Both chambers are in play, but the question remains how many independent voters will vote straight-ticket if they are wooed by Snyder’s campaign. That question, alone, may decide the majority of down-ticket races regardless of the candidates themselves.

Other news:

Michigan’s most-loathed oil company, Enbridge, is not making any new friends in other states either. Another spill in the Chicago-area once again highlights the need for energy sources that cannot spill and cannot contaminate. It should not take repeated spills and disasters to drive this fact home, especially when the only job creation that comes from these tragedies is often from undocumented laborers working under sub-standard conditions. (Check out the company website; their fancy homepage is accumulating a list of "incident responses.")  Meanwhile, we have wind turbine technicians being trained right here in Michigan.

Coming up next…

It is unlikely that the Snyder campaign will simply sit back and watch the attack ads, especially with the war chest that Snyder has built (and personally contributed to). The Bernero path to victory will require some mud but, for now, Snyder will likely be able to simply defend his record rather than flinging any back. Beyond the campaigns, other interested organizations are likely to get on the airwaves soon, too. Back in Lansing --- where, yes, they are still trying to legislate --- an upcoming budget will likely spark a good amount of debate among all levels of campaigns.

As always, though, Michigan LCV will be on hand in the Capitol and on the campaign trail to ensure that no candidate forgets the potential of a sustainable economy and the clean energy jobs that will accompany it. And, remember, consistent updates on all of these issues are available through our website, Candidate Tracker, and Blog.

Until next week,

Ryan Werder

Political Director, Michigan League of Conservation Voters